认知情境、自我框架对风险决策的影响_应用心理学.doc

摘要：风险决策无论在理论建构还是实证研究上都是管理学和心理学关注的焦点之一，本研究在以往研究的基础上，采用E-prime程序探讨了认知情境、框架效应对风险决策的影响。研究涉及被试80人，分为两个实验。实验一采用3（风险情境：正/负/混合）×3（框架:正/负/自我）的被试内实验设计，实验材料来自于Wang的实验内容并在此基础上进行修改；实验二采用2（框架:积极/消极）×3（损益额：8000万/80万/8万）×5（概率值：10%/30%/50%/70%/90%）的被试内实验设计，实验材料是由段锦云的实验内容修改而成。两个实验的因变量均为风险决策偏好水平，即被试在6点量表上选择的对两种方案的赞成程度。研究有四个主要发现：1）框架对被试的风险决策效果显著，同样的情境采用不同的框架表征，被试的风险偏好会发生变化 2）风险情境对被试的风险决策效果显著，不同的风险情境，被试的风险偏好会发生变化。3）损益额对被试的风险决策效果显著，在低损益和高损益条件下，被试均倾向于冒险方案，而在中等损益条件下，被试则倾向于保守方案。4）概率值对被试的风险偏好水平产生显著影响，随着概率值的升高，在选择冒险方案时，被试获得收益的可能性增加，被试的风险偏好水平也相应增加。

关键词: 风险决策  风险情境  框架  损益额  概率  偏好水平

Abstract：Decision-making is one of the focuses of management and psychology both in theory construction and experimental study. After studying the existent research, in this study, we explored the effect of conceptual-situation and self-framing to risk decision-making by using experimental method and E-prime. Two experiment were conducted in this sudy and we gathered data from 80 subjects. In experiment 1, we modified Wang’s experiment contents as our experimental material. The experimrnt is 3(situation:positive/negative/mixed)×3(framing:gain/lost/self) within subject design; In experiment 2, we modified Duan’s experiment contents as our experimental material. The experimrnt is 2(framing:gain/lost)×3(gains and loss: 800 billion/8 billion/8 thousand)×5 (probability:10%/30%/50%/70%/90%) within subject design. The independent variable of the two experiments was risk decision-making preference level. The experiment results showed: 1)The frames(positive frames/negative frames) have strong influence on risk decision-making, and using different frames to represent the same risk situation can result in different risk decision-making preference level . 2) Risk situations (positive/negative/ mixed) have influence on risk decision-making and different risk situation can lead to different risk decision-making preference level. 3)The gains and loss have strong influence on risk decision-making, and in low and high gains and loss, people take more risk preference than average gains and loss. 4) Probability has influence on risk decision-making, and with the increase of probability, people take more risk preference.

Key words: risk decision-making; risk situation; frames; gains and loss; probability; preference level