资本流动和中国货币政策(外文翻译).doc

译文（字数 7626）：

走过三元悖论：资本流动和中国货币政策

Reuven Glick , Michael Hutchison

摘要：

    近年来，中国一直越来越面临着三元悖论，既如何追求独立的国内货币政策和限制汇率的灵活性的同时面对庞大且不断增长的国际资本流动。本文分析了资本流动下中国的货币政策以及三元悖论随着国家放宽了商品和金融市场对经济的影响。它显示了中国是如何通过中央银行负债试图隔离储备货币来保证国际收支平衡。然而，我们的报告表明由于国际储备的大规模发展，资本冲击在2006年急剧下降。我们通过一个向量误差修正模型来关联中国的储备货币激增的情况，从而分析真实的GDP和物价水平。我们用这个模型来探索通货膨胀下影响不同的政策方案。在经济增长以及储备货币持续快速增长的情况下，模型预测通货膨胀也快速增长。使用模型模拟该框架的扩展，它整合了在银行准备金增加的情况下通胀迅速上升。相比之下，模型模拟经济增长将大幅放缓的情况将导致通货膨胀压力减小以及国际储备地大量累积。

外文原文（字符数 24609）：

Navigating the Trilemma:Capital Flows and Monetary Policy in China

Reuven Glick , Michael Hutchison

Abstract:

In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma—how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility,while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China’s monetary policy as the country liberalizes its goods and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth. We estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China’s reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth  and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves.