医疗卫生保健开支(外文翻译).doc

译文（字数 7195）：

重新评估人口对医疗保健支出的影响:

证据来自台湾

不同于之前的研究,我们认为影响医疗保健支出的不仅仅是人口的老龄化,而且随着人口预期寿命变量的变化都可以解释医疗保健支出的变化。从1960年到2006年，我们通过协整技术审视了人口变化在台湾医疗保健支出中的影响。我们统计发现收入、人口老龄化,预期寿命和执业医师的数量对台湾的医疗保健支出有显著的和长期的经济关系。而除了生活开支外的所有变量对卫生保健支出均产生积极的影响。另外，压缩的发病率假说则表明老年人变得比过去更健康。

 [关键词]卫生保健开支、人口老龄化、寿命、压缩的发病率

一、介绍

在过去的几十年中,大多数发达国家都经历过重大的人口结构变化,其中人口衰老可能是其最重要的改变。当然，造成人口衰老的原因可能有两个，一个是出生率的下降,另一个是预期寿命(LE)的自然延伸。卫生政策制定者担心, 老年人的数量不断增加将加大对医疗卫生支出的需要，并且大多数人直观地认为，这些支出上升与LE有关。也因此，预期寿命成为一个关于卫生保健支出的重要问题。

外文原文（字符数 33385）：

he Geneva Papers, 2008, 33, (728–743)

r 2008 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics 1018-5895/08 

Re-estimating the Demographic Impact on Health Care Expenditure:

Evidence from Taiwan

Yung-Ming Shiu and Mei-Ching  Chiu

Department of Business Administration, National Cheng Kung University, 1, University Road, Tainan, Taiwan.

E-mail: yungming@mail.ncku.edu.tw

Unlike prior studies, we consider not only population ageing but also life expectancy as demographic variables that may explain the variations in health care expenditure. Cointegration techniques are employed to re-examine the effect of demographic changes on the Taiwan health care expenditure from 1960 to 2006. We find that the Taiwan health care expenditure, income, population ageing, life expectancy and the number of practicing physicians have statistically significant and long-run economic relationships. All variables have a positive impact on health care expenditure besides life expenditure. Our empirical results support the compression of morbidity hypothesis, suggesting that older people become healthier than in the past and that health care expenditure would decrease with life expectancy. Several implications for policymaking and future research are   offered.

The Geneva Papers (2008) 33, 728–743.    doi:10.1057/gpp.2008.26

Keywords: health care expenditure; population demographic impact; population ageing; life expectancy; longevity; compression of morbidity

Introduction

Over the past decades, most developed countries have experienced significant changes in their population structure, with ageing perhaps being the most important change. There are two possible reasons for this, one is the decline in the birth rate and the other is the natural extension of life expectancy (denoted as LE). Health policymakers are concerned that the increasing numbers of older people will increase the need for health expenditure and most people intuitively believe that such expenditure rises along with LE. Longevity has thus becomes an important issue with regard to health care spending.