基于敏感性分析的门面房投资项目风险控制研究.doc

摘要:风险控制是指管理者采取各种有效的措施和方法，消除或降低风险事件发生的各种可能性，或者减少风险事件发生时造成的损失。而本文基于敏感性分析门面房投资项目风险控制研究。

　　　敏感性分析是指对需要进行分析的项目，选取项目中的不确定因素，分析这些不确定因素在未来发生变化时对项目效果指标的影响，并将其进行比较的一种方法。通过敏感性分析，项目投资者可以了解到影响项目经济效益的因素在未来发生变化时其变化对项目经济效益的影响程度，从而可以有助于项目投资者在投资前做出相应的判断，以便于可以更好的获取经济效益。在投资项目敏感性分析中一般选取的项目经济效益指标有净现值、内含报酬率、投资回收期几种，进行投资项目敏感性分析时即分析项目中的不确定因素发生变化对这些指标的产生的相应影响。在本文中采用论文结合实际和案例分析及文献借阅的方法进行研究分析。投资项目敏感性分析的方法一般有单因素敏感性分析方法和多因素敏感性分析方法两种。单因素敏感性分析方法是指在分析中就单个所选取的不确定因素在其发生变化时对项目经济效益产生的影响进行分析。在本文中使用单因素敏感性分析方法对门面房投资项目进行研究和分析，得出在该项投资中销售收入为最敏感的因素，最后根据找出的敏感性因素提出关于该项投资的风险控制对策。

关键词 风险控制；敏感性分析；单因素敏感性分析

Abstract:Risk control is to point to managers to take various effective measures and methods, eliminate or reduce risk events of all kinds of possibilities, or reduce the loss caused by risk events occur. And this article is based on sensitivity analysis appearance room investment project risk control research.

　　　Sensitivity analysis is a method that to point to the project which need analysis, select the uncertain factors in the project, analysis the effect of these uncertainties in the future changes to the project index and compare it. Through sensitivity analysis, project investors can understand the factors affecting the economic benefits of the project changes in the future the change the influence degree of the economic benefits of the project, which can help project investors makes the corresponding judgement before the investment, so as to get better economic benefit. There are some general selections of projects in the sensitivity analysis of investment projects economic benefit indicators, such as irr, payback period, net present value of investment project sensitivity analysis in the analysis of uncertain factors in the project of changing the corresponding impact of these indicators. In this article, uses the paper combined with the actual and the methods of case analysis and literature borrowing for this paper. Sensitivity analysis method of investment projects generally have two kinds of a single factor sensitivity analysis method and multi-factor sensitivity analysis method. Refers to the single factor sensitivity analysis method based on the analysis of the uncertainty of a single selected in its changes to the project the impact of the economic benefit is analyzed. In this article, using the single factor sensitivity analysis method to study and analysis of appearance room project, concluded in the sales revenue for the most sensitive factors in the investment, and finally according to find out the sensitivity of the factors of the investment risk control countermeasures are put forward.

Keywords Risk control, Sensitivity analysis,Single factor sensitivity analysis