摘要：资本账户开放和汇率制度选择是开放经济最重要的政策制度，两者具有紧密的内在联系。随着中国经济高速发展、国际地位不断提高，人民币资本账户可兑换将成为必然选择。人民币汇率机制安排是资本账户开放的关键性问题。本文先使用“蒙代尔—弗莱明模型”分析资本开放下最优汇率制度的选择，指出资本开放下，当经济体面临冲击时，固定汇率制难以维持，浮动汇率制度是最优选择；再对中国汇率制度有效性进行实证分析，指出随着中国资本项目开放，应逐渐增大汇率制度弹性，采用浮动汇率制度；最后针对中国现行汇率制度，提出短期实行汇率目标区制度、长期实行独立浮动汇率制的政策建议。
关键词：资本账户开放；汇率制度选择；M—F模型；汇率制度有效性
Abstract：Capital account convertibility and exchange rate regime choice are the most important open economy policies and systems, both of which have close internal relations.With China's rapid economic development, increasing international status, the renminbi capital account convertibility will be inevitable choice.RMB exchange rate mechanism arrangements are the key issues of capital account liberalization.This first use of using the "Mundell - Fleming model" Optimal exchange rate regime of capital and opening up the choice, pointing out that capital openness, when the economy is facing impacts, difficult to maintain the fixed exchange rate system, floating exchange rate system is the optimal choice; then the validity of the Chinese exchange rate regime empirical analysis, pointing out that as China's capital account open, flexible exchange rate system should be gradually increased, the use of a floating exchange rate system; Finally, China's current exchange rate system, the implementation of proposed short-term exchange rate target zone system, long-term implementationindependent floating exchange rate system policy recommendations.
Key words:Capital Account convertibility；Exchange Rate System；Mundell - Fleming model；the effectiveness of exchange rate regime
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