我国央行票据冲销政策研究.doc

摘要:自2000年以来，我国外汇储备剧增导致央行被迫大量投放基础货币，为稳定货币供应量，央行不得不进行大规模货币冲销操作。2002年9月以来，央行大量发行央行票据以回收流动性，并将其作为公开市场操作的一个主要工具。

　　　本文首先以费雪方程为基础，对货币冲销操作的必要性进行解释，在对货币冲销工具的详细分类的基础上，阐述1994年以来，我国在货币冲销实践过程中对于冲销工具的选择变化。

　　　接着本文描述了央行票据发行的历程、现状及特点，研究了我国央行票据的冲销效果及其局限性。通过计算央行票据的有效对冲比率来说明央行票据的冲销效果。之于央行票据的局限性，则是对其缺陷进行分类研究，包括央行票据发行的高昂成本，对国内货币市场利率的不确定性影响等。

　　　最后，根据我国冲销压力的分析结果，对我国今后货币冲销政策操作提出政策建议，如稳步发展国债市场，灵活采用多样化的货币冲销工具，进一步改革汇率制度等。

关键字： 货币冲销   央行票据   冲销效果   冲销压力

Abstract:Since 2000, the foreign reserve has increased sharply in our country which made the central bank increase the money supply reluctantly. To balance the money supply, the central bank has to carry out a strong monetary sterilization. Since September of 2002, the central bank has issued a great deal of central bank bills to absorb the liquidity and made it a main tool of open market operation.

　　　The paper chooses the Fisher equation to explain the necessity of monetary sterilization at first. Based on the detailed classification of the tools of monetary sterilization, it expounds the history of monetary sterilization in our country since 1994.

　　　After that, this paper describes the history, current situation and characteristics of central bank bills in our country, and discusses the effects and limits of this policy. The research on the effects is based on the measurement of the effective rate of sterilization. As to the study of the limits of this policy, this paper separates the disadvantages to analyze, including the high cost of the policy, the uncertain influence on the money market rate and so on.

　　　Finally, according to the analysis of the pressure of sterilization, this paper gives some political advices to advance the policy of monetary sterilization, such as developing the treasury bill market orderly and steadily, using various monetary policy tools flexibly, making further efforts to reform the exchange rate system and so on.

Key words：Monetary sterilization；Central bank bills；Effect of sterilization；Pressure of sterilization

　　　目前，我国外汇储备仍处于增长状态，并且在短期内没有逆转趋势，而国内流动性过剩，通货膨胀率大幅上升，如果继续采用大量发行央行票据回收流动性，那么就必须对央行票据的冲销成本及效果进行审慎研究，从而判断央行票据的可持续性。随着我国债券市场的发展，如果放弃央行票据，转而采用以国债为主的公开市场操作来冲销外汇占款，无论这种转变结果如何，作为在历史上起过极为重要作用的央行票据冲销政策都是值得研究的课题。

　　　因此，通过对我国央行票据冲销效果的研究和局限性分析，有助于我们更深刻的理解央行票据在货币冲销实践中的作用及问题，而在此基础上结合对冲销压力动态变化的研究，有助于我们为央行今后的冲销政策的选择与完善提供政策建议。