巨额外汇储备对我国货币政策独立性影响研究.doc

摘要:近年来由于国际收支持续双顺差，外商直接投资，人民币升值预期以及强制结售汇制等多项原因的共同作用，我国外汇储备大规模大幅度增长，已超过日本跃居世界第一。外汇储备的增多，总体上反映了我国投资环境的改善和综合国力的提高，但巨额的外汇储备从各方面对我国经济安全造成了一定困扰，影响了货币政策的独立性。本文以蒙代尔“不可能三角”为理论依据，从外汇占款、资本流动、中央银行资产安全三个方面探讨了巨额外汇储备对我国货币政策独立性的影响，并有针对性的提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词：外汇储备；货币政策；不可能三角

Abstract:In recent years, due to international payment surplus, foreign direct investment, the RMB appreciation and mandatory exchange settlement system, China's foreign exchange reserve has increased substantially and surpassed Japan to rank firstplace in the world. The increase of foreign exchange reserve reflecting the general improvement of China’s investment environment and strengthening of comprehensive national strength, but huge foreign exchange reserve caused some problems of economic security, and is affecting the independence of monetary policy. This article based on Robert Mundell’s Impossible Triangle, discussed the influence of massive foreign exchange reserves on the independence of China's monetary policy, from the aspects of funds outstanding for foreign exchange, capital flows, the central bank asset security, and at last put forward relevant policy suggestions.

Key words: Foreign Exchange Reserve; Monetary Policy; Impossible Triangle

　　　以往文献对本文所做的研究具有启发和借鉴的意义，但这些文献主要研究方向为外汇储备的增加对一国货币政策或经济的影响，虽然有提到对货币政策独立性的影响，但大多学者并未将此设为命题进行系统的分析，而个别将其作为研究对象的，研究并不全面或只是从一个方面进行了研究探讨，忽略了资本流动等在其中起到的间接作用。在查阅文献的过程中，甚至发现有些学者将外汇储备增长对我国货币政策的影响和对我国货币政策独立性影响这两个概念进行了混淆。本文力求有所突破，以蒙代尔“不可能三角”作为理论依据，从三个方面系统全面的研究巨额外汇储备对我国货币政策独立性的影响。