中等收入陷阱与我国的跨越对策探析.doc

摘要：随着我国经济的快速发展，国民生产总值的不断提高，我国已经从一个低收入国家过渡到中等收入国家，2010 年我国人均GDP 达到4400 美元，正式步入中等收入国家的行列，与此同时，在经济发展中长期积累起来的各种矛盾开始凸显，历史经验告诉我们，如果不妥善解决这些问题和矛盾，就会落入“中等收入陷阱”，导致经济增长缓慢或停滞。本文主要分析了当前我国经济在社会发展中存在的“中等收入陷阱”问题和原因，建设性地提出了跨越“中等收入陷阱”的相关对策选择。主要从“ 中等收入陷阱” 的成因、一些具有代表性的发展中国家陷入“ 中等收入陷阱” 的原因及教训、日本和“ 亚洲四小龙” 成功跨越“ 中等收入陷阱” 的经验研究三个方面对当前的研究成果进行综述。最后分析了我国现阶段经济发展面临的挑战,并提出我国要想成功跨越“ 中等收入陷阱”必须转变经济发展方式、产业结构升级、科技创新、加快收入分配体制改革、建立完善的社会保障体系和社会公共服务体制。

关键词：经济发展方式 中等收入陷阱 跨越策略 中国

ABSTRACT：With China's rapid economic development, the gross national product is also rising. China has moved from a low-income country to a middle-income country, with per capita GDP reaching $4400 in 2010, formally entering the rank of middle income countries. While at the same time, various contradictions with long-term accumulation in the economic development began to emerge. Historical experience tells us that if these problems and contradictions not being addressed properly, we will fall into the "middle-income trap", leading to slow economic growth or stagnation. This paper analyzed "middle income trap" problems and causes of the current situation of China's economy in social development, putting forward relevant countermeasures to be chosen over "the middle income trap". Mainly from the "middle income trap", the causes of some representative countries caught in the "middle-income trap" and the lessons drawn, and experience studied on cases of how Japan and the "East Asian Tigers" successfully avoided the "middle income trap" these three aspects, the author summarizes the current research. Finally, the author analyzes the challenges faced by China on the current stage of economic development, and puts forward the proposal that if our country wants to successfully cross the "middle income trap" it must change the mode of economic development, upgrade the industrial structure, innovate technologies, speed up the reform of income distribution system, and establish a perfect social security system and social public service system.

Key words: mode of economic development; middle-income trap; countermeasure for avoiding the trap; China

在本论文研究当中，对中等收入陷阱这一概念持肯定的态度，并主张把这一概念的研究真正推向细化和深入。在本论文的研究当中主要是从过往的经济学特别是经济增长理论文献着手，并结合一些国家的经验和教训来研究中国怎样才能跨越中等收入陷阱，首先主要从从中等收入陷阱的理论基础出发，研究这一概念在经济当中的理论依据，并且结合相应的参考文献和世界银行的研究成果，明白这一概念的含义和其中等收入陷阱在一些国家的具体特征，同时，介绍一些关于中等收入陷阱的表现形式和相应的一些国家在这一阶段所采取的相应的措施，得到一些经验和教训。然后分析中国在中等收入阶段的优势和劣势。最后，结合中国经济发展阶段的特点，找到一条如何跨越中等收入陷阱的途径。