云南省旅游业对经济增长的溢出效应分析.doc

摘要

“十二五”期间，我国计划把旅游业培育成国民经济的战略性支柱产业，这段时间同时也是云南建设旅游经济强省的关键时期。随着云南旅游知名度的提高，云南省旅游业发展迅速，旅游收入持续增加，取得了辉煌成绩，而且旅游业是一个具有很强关联性的产业，可以为其他行业带来诸多益处，比如说能为建筑业、保险业等带来巨大的市场，促进交通、餐饮、文化娱乐等行业的发展，因此，旅游业会对经济产生明显的溢出效应。

　　　本文将通过分析云南省旅游业收入与GDP之间的关系，更深一步地认识云南省旅游业对经济增长的促进作用。采用理论与实际相结合的方式，并在分析实际数据的基础上建立计量经济学模型，最后得出旅游业会对经济增长产生显著的促进作用。首先，介绍云南省旅游业和经济发展的概况；其次，对溢出效应做一个简单的了解；然后，做一个云南省旅游业对经济增长的促进作用的实证分析；最后得出结论，即云南省的旅游业对经济增长产生显著的促进作用，并在此基础上针对云南省如何利用旅游业的溢出效应更好地带动其他产业的发展提出个人的若干建议。

关键词：旅游业;经济;区域溢出;计量分析

abstract

 The period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, which is also the critical period of building strong tourist economy for Yunnan, China plans to promote the tourism industry into a strategic pillar industry of the national economy. Along with the Yunnan tourism enhance the visibility of Yunnan Province, the rapid development of tourism industry, tourism income increases continuously, tourism made brilliant achievements. And tourism is a very strong correlation industry, bringing other industry  many benefits, for example, it can bring huge market for construction and insurance industry, promoting the traffic, catering, culture entertainment industry developing. therefore, the tourism industry will produce the obvious spillover effect for economy of Yunnan.

   This article through the analysis of tourism income of Yunnan province and the relationship with GDP, has a deeper understanding of the tourism industry of Yunnan province grows to economy to promote action. Using a combination of theory and practice way, finally we can came to the conclusion that the tourism industry will have a significant role in promoting economic growth in the analysis of actual data based on the econometric model. First, we introduce the tourism industry of Yunnan province and economic development; secondly,  we make a simple understanding for the spillover effect to ; then, we made an empirical analysis of the role of tourist industry of Yunnan province to promote economic growth; In conclusion, Yunnan province tourism industry have a significant role in promoting economic growth , and we puts forward some suggestions on this basis for how to use the Yunnan province tourism industry spillover effect and better promote the development of other industry. 

Keyword：Tourism; economic; regional overflow; measurement analysis