摘 要:电力负荷预测在电力系统运行和调度中起着非常重要的作用，可以经济合理的安排电网内部发电机组的启停，保持电网运行的安全稳定性，减少不必要的旋转储备容量；合理安排机组检修计划，保证社会的正常生产和生活，有效降低发电成本，提高经济效益和社会效益；在目前国内电力事业空前的发展前提下，用电管理走向市场，这就对电力负荷预测的预测模型提出了更高的要求。
本文在众多预测方法中，着重介绍并比较了随机时间序列法和灰色预测技术两种预测方法。由于灰色预测具有负荷预测数据少、不考虑分布规律、不考虑变化趋势、运算方便、易于检验等优点，同时结合所收集到的负荷预测数据，本文主要采用灰色预测模型进行负荷预测。并通过MATLAB软件对负荷预测进行仿真分析。仿真预测结果验证了该方法对于负荷预测的合理性和可行性。
关键词：电力负荷预测 电力系统 matlab 灰色预测
ABSTRACT:Power load forecasting in power system operation and scheduling plays a very important role in the grid can be economically reasonable arrangements for the internal generator set start and stop, maintaining security and stability of power system operation and reduce unnecessary rotating reserve capacity; reasonable arrangements for unit maintenance plan to ensure normal production and life of society, reduce electricity costs, improve economic and social benefits; unprecedented in the current development of the domestic power industry under the premise of power management to the market, which the predictive power load forecasting model proposed higher requirements.
In this paper, a number of prediction methods, highlighting and comparing the stochastic time series forecasting techniques two kinds of method and gray prediction method. As Grey has less load forecast data, without considering distribution, without regard to trends, computing, easy inspection, etc., combined with the collected data load forecasting, this paper mainly adopts the gray prediction model load forecasting. And through the load forecasting software MATLAB simulation analysis. Simulation results validate the prediction method for load forecasting rationality and feasibility.
Keywords: power load forecasting;electric system;matlab;grey prediction
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