银河房地产投资风险分析与防范.doc

摘要:近年来，我国房地产业迅猛发展。但是房地产建设周期长、项目投资额大，开发过程中不可预见的因素较多，投资方通常面临着各种风险。而且管理者风险意识淡薄，风险管理水平也比较低，导致房地产企业投资风险大大增加。本文在总结国内外投资风险研究的基础上，系统提出了房地产投资风险的类型以及房地产投资风险分析的必要性。然后以南京市银河房地产开发有限公司为研究对象，以银河项目为例进行敏感性分析与偿债能力分析，对房地产企业面临的投资风险进行了分析，并提出了一些防范措施，以希望对中小型房地产企业进行投资风险管理提供一些帮助。

关键词 房地产；投资；风险分析；防范措施

Abstract:In recent years, the development of China's real estate industry has been very fast. However，because the investment of real estate project is large, the developing cycle is long and the unforeseen factors in process are numerous, the investors usually faced with all kinds of risks．And the managers are lack of risk awareness and the risk management levels are rather low, which causes that the risks in real estate developing process increase greatly. This paper analysis the summary of domestic and foreign real estate investment risks, systematically puts forward the types of real estate investment risk and the necessity of the real estate investment risk analysis. And then take the Nanjing galaxy real estate development limited company as the research object, take the yin he project as an example for sensitivity analysis and solvency analysis, analyzing the investment risk of the real estate enterprises which are facing, and put forward some prevention measures, In the hope of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises to invest in risk management to provide some help.  

Keywords  real estate  investment  risk analysis  prevention measures

　　　房地产投资具有高收益与高风险并存的特点，房地产企业要想取得投资的成功，必须具有经济的头脑和战略的眼光，熟知市场状况，具备相关操作经验和技巧，从风险的各个要素和环节入手，对各个房地产项目阶段的风险进行分析。

　　　本文主要以银河企业为研究对象，通过对银河项目进行分析，首先计算了项目的投资利润率，项目净现值，内部收益率，均达到设定目标，其次对银河项目进行了偿债能力分析与敏感性分析，通过偿债能力分析，银河企业短期偿债能力较强，长期偿债能力因负债率过高而比较弱，存在投资风险；通过敏感性分析，当销售价格与项目总成本上下变动时，项目的投资利润率、净现值、内部收益率变化比较稳定，项目抵御风险能力较强，投资风险较小。最后从投资决策、土地获取、项目建设、经营管理四个阶段对银河项目进行风险因素分析，并提出了相关的风险防范措施。