重庆扩大内需与新型城镇化建设牵扯的实证分析.doc

摘 要:本论文通过建立城镇化率与重庆市内城镇化建设投资、消费、和进口的相关关系实证模型，研究了重庆城镇化建设与拉动内需之间的牵扯效应。分析了城镇化建设对重庆市内需求的具体带动效用大小。发现了城镇化建设对投资和消费的带动效应是巨大的，城镇化率每提高一个百分点，重庆市内的消费和投资就会增长几百亿之多。得出三个方面重要的结论，首先，重庆城镇化率与重庆的消费呈正相关关系，两者互相影响。重庆城镇化率与重庆的消费呈正相关关系，两者互相影响。每当重庆新型城镇化率提高一个百分点，重庆市内的消费就增加约218亿。其次重庆城镇化率与重庆的投资也呈正相关关系，两者互相影响。每当重庆新型城镇化率提高一个百分点，重庆市内的投资就增加约300亿。最后，重庆城镇化率与重庆的进口呈正相关关系，两者互相影响。虽然拉动效应没有对投资和消费的带动效应强，但是每当重庆新型城镇化率提高一个百分点，重庆市内的进口就增加约5亿。虽然当前重庆市新型城镇化建设发展迅速，并显示出了强大的生命力与蓬勃活力，但重庆市内的城镇化建设还是存在很多问题，但相对于发达国家，以及其它省市重庆市新型城市化过程中还还面临着许多如配套法规、政策环境、内部管理机制等方面的障碍因素。本文将提出以实证数据模型为依据的改进对策。实证结果表明重庆城镇化建设对于重庆经济的发展至关重要。重庆市政府必须积极推进出重庆城镇化建设，出台相关法律法规，建立健全城镇化建设机制。为其他兄弟省市及为促进社会主义城镇化的建设提供参考。

关键词：扩大内需；新型城镇化；协调发展；经济增长；实证分析；投资；消费

ABSTRACT:In this paper, through the establishment of urbanization rate and chongqing city urbanization construction investment, consumption, imports and the relationship between the empirical model, studies the chongqing involved effect between urbanization construction and boost domestic demand. Analyses the urbanization construction in chongqing city needs specific drive utility. Found that the urbanization construction of the driving effects of investment and consumption is huge, every one percent increase of urbanization rate, consumption and investment in chongqing will increase more than tens of billions. Three aspects important conclusion, first of all, chongqing urbanization rate and the consumption was positively correlated, both influence each other. Chongqing urbanization rate and the consumption was positively correlated, both influence each other. Whenever new chongqing urbanization rate increased by one percent, the consumption increase of about 21.8 billion in chongqing. Second chongqing urbanization rate and the investment is also positively correlated relationship, both influence each other. Whenever a new chongqing urbanization rate increased by one percent, increased investment in chongqing is about 30 billion. Finally, chongqing urbanization rate and the imports were positively correlated, both influence each other. While pulling effect not for the driving effects of investment and consumption is strong, but when chongqing new urbanization rate increased by one percent, imports will increase about 500 million in chongqing. While the current chongqing new urbanization construction is developing rapidly, and showed a strong vitality and vigorous vitality, but there are still many problems of urbanization construction in chongqing, but compared with developed countries, and other provinces and cities also is faced with many new urbanization process in chongqing as the supporting regulations, policy environment and obstacle factors of the internal management mechanism and so on. This article will put forward based on the empirical data model improvement countermeasures. The empirical results show that chongqing urbanization construction is vital for the development of chongqing economy. The chongqing government must actively promote the urbanization of chongqing construction, relevant laws and regulations, establish and improve the mechanism of urbanization construction. For other brother provinces and cities, and provide reference to promote the socialist construction of urbanization.

Keywords:expanding domestic demand; New urbanization; Coordinated development; Economic growth;  The empirical analysis;  Investment;  consumption;