中美贸易顺差相关性分析.doc

摘要：自2001年底加入WTO以来，中国对美国的贸易顺差持续上升。2006年中国对美国享有的贸易顺差接近1443亿美元，比上年增长26.4%，2007年中国对美国顺差1633.2亿美元，比2006年增长15%。持续的中美贸易顺差源于多方面的因素，其中很重要的一个原因是美国和东亚诸国的产业升级以及对华产业转移，特别是劳动密集型加工环节的转移所导致的产品内分工和产品内贸易。本文实证分析表明，产品内贸易与中美贸易顺差存在长期的协整关系，是产生中美之间总体贸易顺差的根源。

【关键词】中美贸易  贸易顺差  产品内分工

【Abstract】Since China joined the WTO at the end of 2001, Chinese trade surplus with the United States has continued to rise. In 2006, Chinese trade surplus with the United States was nearly 144.3 billion US dollars, increased 26.4 percent over the previous year, and in 2007, Chinese trade surplus was 163.32 billion US dollars, grew 15% over 2006. There are many factors lead Chinese trade surplus with the United States to continue, and including a very important reason is that the upgrading of the American and East Asian countries’ industries transfer to China, especially that the transfer of labor-intensive processing link caused to the Intra-Product Specialization and Intra-Product Trade. In this paper, empirical analysis shows that there is existence of a long-term relationship cointegration between Intra-Product Trade and Chinese trade surplus with the USA, and it’s just the source of the overall trade surplus between China and the United States.

【Key Word】Chinese trade with the USA; Trade surplus; Intra-Product Specialization

　　本文运用中国入世以来中美间贸易的相关数据，分析了中美贸易顺差的原因以及给两国带来的影响，同时提出一些意见和建议。总的来说，中国对美国的商品出口将保持一定的增长速度，中美两国贸易不平衡状况在短期内还会延续，而且中美贸易差额短期内将会保持或有所加大，但从长远来看，中美贸易差额将会逐步缩小并渐趋平衡。对于中美贸易顺差的相关问题，已经有相关部门进行研究并提出相应的对策，根据现实情况应用相关策略，中美贸易顺差必定迈向新的平衡台阶。