XX市房价与地价关系的实证分析.doc

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  • 更新时间:2016-01-04
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摘要:作为市场供求作用的信号,房价与地价反映了房地产市场和土地市场的供求关系,而房价与地价的关系,是社会各界争论已久了的话题,为进一步探讨房价与地价的内在关联,本文在对房价与地价关系进行理论分析的基础上,以江苏省东台市2006年至2010年的房价与地价数据为例,通过Granger因果关系检验,对房价和地价的关系进行实证研究,分析结果认为短期内房价与地价是相互影响的,呈因果双向关系;但是长期来看,房价与地价具有一定的独立性。本文对这一段结果进行了分析,并对东台市未来的房地产市场发展提出了一些政策建议。

关键词:东台市  房价  地价   实证分析

 

Abstract: As the market supply and demand, the signal role reflects the land-rent value and the land market and real estate market supply and demand relation with land on house prices, become social circles the dispute has long topic,in order to further explore the internal relationship between house prices and the land based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between house prices and land prices and by means of Gtanger causality test,this paper takes the data of the house prices and land prices from2006 to 2010 of Dongtai city in Jiangsu Province as an example and makes an emprirical study of the relation-ship between house prices and land prices. The results show that:in the short term prices in coastal counties of Jiangsu Province, is the interaction with the land, was a two-way relationship between cause and effect,in the short term prices in coastal counties of Jiangsu Province, is the interaction with the land, was a two-way relationship between cause and effect, but in the long run the house prices and land prices have certain independence. This article analyzes the results of this paragraph, and the future of the Dongtai city real estate market has made some policy recommendations.

Key words:Dongtai City  Rates  Premium  Empirical Analysis

 

  对房地产的投资或投机需求,促使社会闲置资金纷纷涌向楼市。这些虚拟需求对房地产市场起到了助涨助跌的作用,同时也把市场风险集中在了银行。由于投机行为掩盖了房地产的真实需求,造成房地产市场的虚假繁荣,并使具有真正需求的消费者的利益受到损害,导致整个土地市场的混乱,不符合帕累托效率最优的原理,也不利于国民经济的发展。所以,资本市场的发展与完善,可为资金的疏散提供良好的渠道。政府应该对这部分需求承担一定的引导作用。

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