主动管理与被动管理，价值投资与短线投机比较分析.doc

摘要:本文主要从股市投资主动管理与被动管理之争、价值投资与短线投机之争解析中国股市普通投资者失败的原因以及根本症结所在，根据成熟市场并结合国情对股市普通投资者的投资方法提出建议。本文认为主动管理长期不能取得超额收益的本质原因是在零和博弈下，交易成本导致亏损的概率偏大；长期看主动管理大多数不能够取得超额收益。而本文又认为价值投资之所以通常优于投机，是因为资本市场赚钱的本质是通过资本升值实现的，而投机股票多数因为缺乏基本面支持，股价常常表现成过山车式，而价值投资有充分的基本面支持，获得长期资本升值是可以保证的。这样价值投资长期定然优于投机。

关键词：投资理念；投机；价值投资；主动管理；被动管理

Abstract:This paper analysis the failure of ordinary investors of Chinese stock market and the fundamental crux of the problem form the debate of active management and passive management，the value of short-term speculative investment and dispute. According to the national conditions in mature markets and ordinary investors on the stock market to make recommendations.

This paper argues that proactive management of long-term nature of excess returns can not be achieved due to the zero-sum game, the probability of transaction costs lead to larger losses; most of active management can not obtain excess returns for the long term.The paper also considers Value investing is often better than speculation,because the nature of capital markets to make money through achieving capital appreciation, But the most speculative stocks because of the lack of fundamental support , leading to  stock price performance of ups and downs. Value investing have fundamentals sufficient to support, so the long-term capital appreciation is guaranteed. This will certainly better than the value of long-term speculative investment.

Keyword: Investment Philosophy, Speculative, value investing, active management, passive management

　　　中国证券市场的二十年，是一个逐步完善的过程，然而，在中国，散户投资者依然是市场的主力军。在股市王国里有着这样一句话：“散户十有七亏二平一盈。”虽然这句话过于武断和片面，但是从中却能体会到中国股票市场普通投资者的投资境遇。为何大多数普通投资者不能够获得与股票市场相同的收益呢，为何在证券市场长期向上的背景下，散户投资者多为亏损呢？应该是投资理念的问题，只有掌握了正确的投资理念普通投资者群体才能在股票市场上实现资产升值的愿望。本文在相关研究的基础上，对股票市场普通投资者投资理念进行研究并找到正确的投资理念。主要从主动管理与被动管理，价值投资与短线投机的角度来研究，希望可以给普通投资者提出较好的投资建议。