摘要：2008年爆发国际金融危机后世界经济严重下滑以及国内经济严重萎缩，迫于国际经济的波动以及国内经济情况，人民币对美元的汇率从2010年持续增长。随着人民币汇率日渐趋于均衡，我国在贸易结构调整、国际收支平衡做出了很大变动。汇率是国际经济活动中最重要的综合性价格指标，它的变化对一国对外贸易和国内经济活动都会产生较大的影响。
中国商务部最近召开“外贸结构调整”新闻发布会指出我国市场多元化取得新进展，进出口贸易结构发生积极变化。2012年，工业制成品出口比重为95.1%，比2007年提高了0.2个百分点。机电产品、高新技术产品占出口比重分别达到57.6%和29.3%，尤其是高新技术产品出口比重比2007年提高了0.7个百分点。矿物燃料、有色金属、非金属矿、钢铁及化工等5大类共39种 “两高一资”产品占出口比重为5.2%，比2007年下降2.1个百分点。我国积极推动战略性新兴产业国际化，鼓励机电产品出口。在推动产业结构升级、保障资源能源供应安全下我国进口总体表现良好。进口规模由2007年的9558.2亿美元扩大到2012年的18178.3亿美元，增长90.2%。进口年均增速13.7%。随着人民币的升值我国货物贸易方式结构也发生了变化，一般贸易成为主要的贸易方式。2012年一般贸易出口增速快于加工贸易4.4个百分点，占出口总额比重比2007年提高4个百分点。
本论文主要以人民币汇率变动为历史背景，运用经济学理论知识分析近几年人民币汇率变动以及我国贸易结构的现状，剖析其发展的变化规律以及人民币升值对我国贸易模式结构变化的影响。以真实数据为依据，总结应对贸易模式结构变化的举措。
关键词：人民币汇率 贸易模式结构 影响
ABSTRACT：The international financial crisis broke out since 2008 , the International economy has fallen seriously as well as the domestic economy has shrink. Forced to the shocked of International economy and the situation of domestic economy, renminbi exchange rate against dollars has being growing since 2010. As the renminbi rate tend to be balanced, We have a great change in the trade structure adjustment and the balance of International payment. The rate is the importance of the comprehensive price index in International economy activities. The change of rate will have a great influence on which external trade and domestic economy activities.
In recent month, China's ministry of commerce open a press conference about “The International Trade Structure Adjustment” which indicating the great progress of market diversification and the great change in import&export trade structure. In 2012, Industrial finished products export proportion is 95.1%, improved more 0.2% than 2007. Mechanical and electrical products, high-tech products export proportion reached 57.6% and 57.6%, especially the export proportion of high-tech products has improved 0.7%. Fossil fuels, non-ferrous metals, non-metallic mineral, iron and steel, and chemical and other five major categories total of 39 “high-polluting, high-energy-consuming and resource-dependent" product export proportion is 5.2% getting lower 2.1% than 2007. Our country is actively promoting the strategic emerging industry internationalization, encourage the export of electromechanical products. China’s import have a good performance on the premise of upgrading the industrial structure and guaranting the supply security of energy and resource. Imports expanded from $955.82 million in 2007 to $1817.83 million in 2012, up 90.2%. Annual import grew 13.7%. With the appreciation of RMB goods trade structure has changed. General trade become the main trade way. In 2012, the general trade export growth 4.4 percentage points faster than the processing trade, Accounted for 4 percentage points more of total exports than in 2007.
The main historical background of this paper is the change of RMB exchange rate. Using the economics theory analysis the RMB exchange rate changes of recent years, and the current situation of China's trade structure. Analysis the variation law of development and the impact of RMB appreciation on China's trade structure change. The empirical result shows that RMB exchange rate appreciation is beneficial to the development of inter-industry trade and horizontal but unfavorable to vertical inter-industry trade . Therefore , the appreciation of RMB exchange rate finally adversely affects the optimization and upgrading of inter-industry trade and it has side effects in the upgrading of our country’s trade model structure. On the basis of real data, summary the response measures to the changes in trade structure.
Keywords: RMB exchange rate; Foreign trade model structure; Effect
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