中国铝业股份有限公司投资价值研究.pdf

摘要

上市公司投资价值估值是证券分析的重要环节。不同的投资理念和投资价值方法可以使在对上市公司估值时产生较大的差异。自2008 年以来，中国股市大起大落，股票价格偏离其内在价值，大多数的投资者并没有从股市获得预期的收益，投资者对中国目前的股市前途不免担忧起来。目前，我国A 股市场上很多铝业股价值被严重低估，但实际上我国铝行业具备长期投资的价值。

本文正是在这种时代背景下，在比较分析的基础上采取理论研究和实证研究相结合的方法，开始深入思考将企业投资价值研究的方法和企业的实际情况相结合得出企业投资估值的合理区间。其中，本文以中国铝业股份有限公司为研究样本，集中研究自由现金流量贴现模型，对中国铝业股份有限公司价值进行估算，为投资者的投资决策提供一定理论基础的支持和决策方面的借鉴，也为投资者的投资决策在对上市公司研究投资价值时提供一个范例。

本文对中国铝业进行价值估值的基准日是2011年12月30日，经过研究分析得出，中国铝业股份有限公司未来发展前景光明，具有长期投资的价值，其在2011年的内在价值的合理区间应该是8.95—9.28元，对比其在该日6.35元的交易价格，本文认为中国铝业的内在价值被低估了。

关键词：投资价值，自由现金流量模型，中国铝业

Abstract

The listed company valuations investment value is an important link of securities analysis. Different investment philosophy and investment value method can make to the listed company valuations in a greater difference. Since 2008, China's stock markets falling, the deviation are between stock price and it’s intrinsic value, most investors have not achieved the expected benefits from the stock market, investors in China's current stock market are worrying to the future. At present, China's a-share market,a lot of aluminium shares value be underestimated badly, but in fact China's aluminum industry have long term investment value.

This paper it is in these times background, in a comparative analysis of the theoretical research and empirical research to the method of combining the began to think deeply about the enterprise investment value research methods and the actual situation of enterprise combining investment from enterprise valuation of the reasonable interval.

Among them, this paper takes Aluminum Corporation of China Limited as research samples, focuses on free cash flow discount model,and calculates the value of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, the investment decision for investors provides certain theoretical basis of support and decision-making reference, and for investors to investment decision in the listed company research investment value provides a example.

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited,Value valuation base date is December 30,2011,After the study analysis, with long term investment value,Aluminum Corporation of China Limited have a grander prospect ,the intrinsic value in 2011of the reasonable interval should be 8.95-9.28 yuan, compared to its trading price of 6.35 yuan on that date, this paper considers the intrinsic value of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited has been underestimated.

Keyword: Investment Value, Free Cash Flow Model, Aluminum Corporation of China Limited