人民币汇率变化与中美贸易关系的分析.doc

摘 要：自中国加入世界贸易组织以来，作为在现今世界上有着深厚影响力的大国，中国与美国之间的贸易往来对整个世界的经济发展有着很大作用，近些年来随着两国经济的发展以及各领域合作的加深，中国和美国之间的经济活动接触日趋增加，所涉及的贸易总金额也越来越大。目前，美国己仅次于欧盟成为中国的第二大贸易伙伴；同样自2006年起，中国取代了墨西哥，成为美国仅次于加拿大的第二大贸易伙伴国。中美之间贸易关系逐渐加深，但随着这种关系的发展，随之带来了一些问题，其中最显著的就是中美之间的贸易不平衡衡程度达到了最高峰，贸易摩擦也逐渐增多。中美之间巨大的贸易顺差成为了两国贸易摩擦的主要原因，也成为了影响世界的一大不稳定因素。对此，美国一再指责中国当局人为地压低人民币汇率以促进出口，并不断要求人民币升值。因此，中国于2005年7月21日，宣布改革人民币汇率形成机制，实行“以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度”，从此人民币开始逐步升值。但是自中国汇改五年来，人民币虽然在不断升值，美中之间的巨大贸易逆差却并没有因此而得到改善，反而继续扩大，这引起了不少专家学者的关注，人民币汇率变化与美中贸易逆差关系的课题成为研究的热点问题。

　　　本文在实证的基础上，通过查阅、研究相关学者的文献，较为详细地分析和研究了人民币汇率与中美贸易之间的关系，并对相关的理论进行了总结概括。

    通过分析，本文得出了汇率变动对贸易不平衡的影响很小，同时认为人民币汇率制度一段时间内应该保持稳定，不应贸然升值。并对缓解中美贸易的不平衡提出了一些对策。

关键词：中美；贸易逆差，人民币汇率，相关性，原因，对策

ABSTRACT：Since China's accession to the WTO, as a significant trade in the contemporary world, trade between China and the United States has played a significant role in economic development .As the deepen mutual cooperation of the two countries in various fields, trade between China and the United States has been more and more frequently, total trade is also growing. Currently, the U.S. has become China's second largest trading partner only inferior to the EU； and since 2006, China replaced Mexico became the second largest trading partner of the United States only inferior to Canada. But with the growing Sino-US trade relations deepen the Sino-US trade imbalance between the degrees of peaked. Huge trade deficit between China and the United States became the main trade friction between the two countries, and also become a major destabilizing factor of the world. The U.S. Has repeatedly accused China of keeping its currency artificially in order to promote exports, and called for the RMB appreciation. Therefore, on July 21, 2005, China announced the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, that "the basis of market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, managed floating exchange rate system", starting from the gradual appreciation of the RMB. However, since China's exchange rate reform in five years, although the continuous appreciation of RMB, the huge trade deficit between China and has not been improved, but continues to expand, which has aroused the attention of scholars from many experts,and the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China-US unbalance trade has became a hot issue.

　　　This paper shows a more detailed analysis and Research on the relationship between RMB and Sino-US trade on the basis of empirical study and through access to relevant literature, scholars，meanwhile the related theories are summarized.

    This paper draws the conclusion that the change of exchange rate has a certain impact on the short-term balance of trade,but has little influence on the long-term trade balance,and the RMB exchange rate regime should be stable within a period of time but not rashly appreciation.

Keywords： China and the United States； trade deficit ； the RMB exchange rate； relevance； reasons； countermeasures