人民币汇率对中美贸易再平衡的影响及对策研究.rar

摘要：近年来，随着全球经济的不断发展，中美贸易摩擦不断增加，然而中美贸易失衡问题成为中美贸易摩擦的焦点。所谓的中美贸易失衡问题是指近年来中国与美国的巨额贸易顺差持续存在，导致两国的国际贸易失衡。在美国，一种观点认为，中国的汇率政策，加剧了美国的失业问题，甚至影响到美国是世界上经济发展。出于这个原因，许多美国人指责美国的贸易赤字与汇率过低，并同意人民币升值值。美国一些经济学家的观点是比较客观，通过本课题的研究，可以得知人民币汇率升值不是解决中美贸易失衡的根本途径，人民币汇率和中美贸易差额的走势变化不是同步的，而美国国内经济失衡、美国对中国出口贸易管制、两国统计口径的差异、美国对中国的直接投资才是中美贸易失衡的主要原因，要实现中美贸易再平衡需从这些方面入手。

关键词：人民币汇率；中美贸易；贸易失衡；贸易再平衡

Abstract：In recent several years, with the continuous growth of global economy, Sino-US trade friction continues increasing. The so called Sino-US trade imbalance means the existence of huge trade surplus between China and America, which results in trade imbalance between two countries. In America, there's a viewpoint existing that Chinese exchange policy deepens the unemployment problem in America, even affects its economic growth all over the world. Because of this, a lot of Americans blame the government for trade deficits and low exchange rate, also agree on the upvaluation of RMB. Some American economists' viewpoints are more objective, according to the research to this subject, they think that upvaluation of RMB is not a fundamental solution to Sino-US trade imbalance, because that the variation of RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade gap are not synchronous. However, the national trade imbalance in America; American export control to China; statistical calibers' difference between two countries; American direct investment in China are 4 main causes of trade imbalance. To achieve Sino-US trade re-balance, these problems must be solved first.

Keywords：RMB exchange rate; Sino-US trade; trade imbalances; trade rebalancing

　　　人民币汇率对中美贸易影响很小，不能作为解释中美之间贸易失衡的原因，要从根本上解决中美两国之间的贸易失衡，不能仅仅将希望放置于使人民币持续、大幅升值。首先，中国要积极调整经济结构，加快产业结构升级，努力扩大内需；其次，美国应该积极调整对华出口政策，取消对华出口贸易限制，使其对华贸易能享受到中国高经济增长需求带来的好处。最后，中国可以更进一步的实施外贸多元化战略，重视发展与周边国家，减少对美国市场的过分依赖，从而减少对美贸易顺差。

　　　至于人民币汇率方面，由于中国国内价格的灵活性，汇率变化对贸易条件和贸易流量只有有限的、短暂的影响，所以中国应该继续保持人民币汇率稳定的政策，将人民币汇率控制在合理的区间内。中国将继续推进人民币汇率机制改革，并保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。