人民币升值对我国资本市场的影响.doc

摘要自2005年7月21日我国实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度以来，人民币不断升值，到今年四月份，人民币升值幅度已经超过30%。在经济全球化不断加深以及我国改革开放的不断深入的情况下，汇率已经成为经济生活中愈来愈重要的宏观经济变量，作为反映经济发展状况的资本市场,汇率自然会影响资本市场的运行走势。而且资本市场不仅反应经济发展状况，更能对一国经济产生巨大影响，因此研究汇率对资本市场的影响显得尤为重要，特别是我国面临人民币汇率不断升值压力的情况下，深入了解人民币升值对我国资本市场的影响，提出相应的应对措施，以便更好的促进资本市场的健康运行以及整个经济的持续发展。本文分别从股票市场、债券市场分析本币升值对资本市场的有利及不利影响。人民币升值顺应经济发展规律，是必然趋势，面对人民币升值对资本市场带来的不利影响，我们不能压制人民币合理升值，但可以对汇率制度、投机资本和进出口结构提出相应的对策。

关键词：人民币升值；资本市场；对策

ABSTRACT：Since July 21, 2005, our country implement based on market supply and demand, reference to a basket of currencies, the managed floating exchange rate system, the RMB appreciate. In April of this year, the appreciation of the RMB rate has exceeded 30%. In the case of the economic globalization and the deepening of China's reform and opening up , the exchange rate has become more and more important macroeconomic variables in economic life.the capital market, as a reflection of the situation of economic development , the exchange rate will naturally affect the tendency of capital market operation. the capital market  not only reflects economic development , but also have a huge impact on the economy of a country. so research of the impact of exchange rate on the capital market is particularly important, especially in the condition that China is facing the pressure of increasing appreciation of the RMB exchange rate , in-depth understanding of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's capital market, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures, in order to better promote the healthy and sustainable development of the operation of the capital market and the whole economy. This paper, from the stock market and bond market , analyses the favorable and unfavorable influence on capital market currency appreciation . The appreciation of the renminbi conform to the laws of economic development, and it is an inevitable trend. in the face of adverse effects on the capital market , which the appreciation of the renminbi brings to , we can not suppress the reasonable appreciation of RMB , but can put forward the corresponding countermeasures on the exchange rate system, venture capital and the structure of import and export.

Keywords: RMB appreciation;capital market;countermeasures

　　人民币对A股市场短期由于资金推动作用会上涨，但长期来看，如果人民币升值预期减弱，资金大量撤离，将会对A股市场造成致命打击。B股市场由于不利因素和有利因素同时存在，两者交织的情况下，B股受人民币升值影响的结果不明显。对于证券市场来说，短期内，由于大量资金的流入带来的流动性利于债券市场，但也存在资金由于人民币升值预期减弱或其他因素导致的资本大量流出所带来的风险。从利率传导机制来看，短期内利于债市二级市场，而不利于一级市场的发展，长期发展下去，最终都会受到损害。

　　人民币升值也是顺应经济发展规律的，但不能短时间大幅升值，这会对我国经济和资本市场产生不利影响，因此本文只是在建议中提出面对人民币升值压力，我们为了保持并促进资本市场以及和资本市场密切相关的国民经济的健康发展的一些建议。