住房贷款在我国居民金融资产结构中的发展趋势.rar

摘要：居民在购买住房时，既可增加负债即向银行申请住房贷款，也可通过减少金融资产来获得购买房子的资金。所以，研究这两者的关系可以让我们更深入的中国居民资产负债的情况，同时可以帮助我们对缓解中国居民住房压力的方向有一个了解。我们首先分析了1978年到2008年我国金融资产的结构及发展趋势，指出各金融资产在改革开放后不同的发展情况。储蓄存款长期占据第一大金融资产，但地位下降。手持现金的比重一直在下降。而债券与股票则得到了长足的发展，并超过了手持现金，成为第二即第三大金融资产。保险准备金则在稳定前行。之后，本文分析了我国住房贷款的基本情况与变化趋势，其一直保持高速增长，次贷危机也不能遏其制增长，只是增速变缓，但之后4万亿投资计划又让它得到巨大的发展。尽管作为之前信贷膨胀的反弹，之后几年个人住房贷款余额增长会放缓，但仍应能保持增长。最后，本文用计量经济学的方法对1997年到2008年的金融资产及住房贷款做了线性回归分析，得出了只有手持现金占居民金融资产比重及债券占居民金融资产比重与个人住房贷款余额在中国金融机构各项贷款中的比重有关。最后，本文对这一研究的意义及未来展望做了一个概述。

关键词：金融资产结构；住房贷款；经济学关系；发展趋势

ABSTRACT：When residents decide to purchase a house, they can increase their liability by applying for housing loans from the bank.They can also reduce the financial assets to obtaine a house funds. Therefore, the study of the relationship between the two allows us to further balance the situation of Chinese residents, and can help us to learn the direction of easing the pressure on housing in China.We first analyze the structure and development trend of China's financial assets, 1978 to 2008, and study the development of each financial asset after the reform and opening up. Savings deposits occupy the first large financial assets for a long term, but the the status has been on the decline. The proportion of cash on hand has been on the decline as well. Bonds and equities have been developed by leaps and bounds, and exceeded the cash to become the second and third largest financial assets. Insurance reserves are in the stable line. Then this paper analyzes the basic situation of China's housing loans and trends, which has maintained rapid growth.Even the subprime crisis can not curb its growth,which only slow down one year. But that 4 trillion investment plan make it be a huge development. Despite as a rebound of credit inflation before, individual housing loans growth will slow down a few years after, but it should still be able to maintain growth. Finally, using the data of the financial assets and housing loans from 1997 to 2008 to do linear regression analysis by econometric methods, we draw a conclusion the only cash on hand representing the proportion of household financial assets and bonds accounted for the proportion related with individual housing loans financial institutions accounted for the proportion of loans. Finally, the significance of this study and future prospects of doing an overview.

Keywords: the structure of financial assets; housing loans; economics relations; development trends