摘要:天气期货是专门用于规避天气风险给企业造成各种损失的一种全新资本管理方式。其交易原理本质上与其他期货产品相同，是针对未来某一时刻的天气情况来进行交易。常用的天气期货价格指数为：芝加哥交易所（CME）的制热日指数（HDD）和制冷日指数（CDD）。国外提供天气期货合约的交易所包括伦敦国际金融期货与期权交易所（LIFFE）、美国芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和位于亚特兰大的洲际交易所（ICE）等。目前国内期货市场还没有天气期货品种，但大连商品交易所自2002年起，就在为推出天气期货合约做研究。
该论文根据我国气温分布特点选取北京和上海两个城市作为研究样本，分析其月平均气温与用电量之间的关系，利用线性回归的算法求出二者间的相关系数，并绘制非线性回归散点图。通过其相关性来说明天气期货在电力行业领域中规避气温风险的作用，相关系数和散点图的不同来说明位于不同气温带的城市天气期货合约的不同。以国际通行的期货品种开发理念、规范及原则作为指导, 并以制热日指数为例，分析散点图与所选城市的数据，确定期货合约适用月份，设计出适用于北京、上海所代表的气温带的天气期货合约。
通过对北京、上海两地的气温与用电量之间关系的研究，说明天气期货在我国的适用性，并为我国天气期货产品的开发及上市，特别是为电力行业期货产品的开发提供了一定的理论参考。
关键字：天气期货；制热日指数；制冷日指数；电力行业
ABSTRACT:The Weather Futures (TWF) is a new way to circumvent capital management specialized weather risk to the enterprise caused various losses. Its trading principle and other futures transactions for the same, is the weather for a moment of the future. Common weather futures price index for the Chicago Stock Exchange (CME): Heating Degree Day (HDD) and Cooling Degree Day (CDD). Abroad to provide weather futures exchanges including the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), the United States of Chicago commodity exchange (CME) and Atlanta Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). At present, the domestic futures market is not the weather futures varieties, but Dalian Commodity Exchange since 2002, is to launch weather futures research.
This paper according to the temperature distribution characteristics of selected two city of Beijing and Shanghai as the research samples, analysis the relationship between the monthly average temperature and the electricity, using linear regression algorithm to calculate the correlation coefficients, and draw the nonlinear regression scatter diagram. Through its relationship to describe the weather futures to avoid the risk in the electricity industry field, correlation coefficients and scatter diagram to illustrate the different in different temperature zone of the city weather futures contracts in different. Access to the international futures varieties development concepts, norms and principles as a guide, and the heat index as an example, analysis of the plot and the selected city data, determine the applicable month futures contracts, designed in two city's temperature with weather futures contracts.
Through researches between two city’s temperatures and electricity, describe the weather futures applicability in our country, and to develop and market our weather futures products, especially to provide a theoretical basis for the field of power industry.
Keywords: TWF; HDD; CDD; the electric power industry
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