人民币国际化路径分析.doc

摘 要:中国多年来国际政治地位不断提高,经济持续高速增长,人民币汇率持续稳定,使得人民币的经济基础和国际信用地位不断加强。同时改革开放以来，中国的经济迅猛增长，国内GDP在2010年超越日本成为世界第二大经济体，和对外贸易持续顺差，创造了28473.4亿美元的外汇。随着中国经济的不断强大，人民币国际化的呼声也越来越高。本文主要将在这样一个大背景下，对人民币国家化的途径进行构想，本文认为人民币应该先实行周边化进而达到区域化，周边化是国际化的第一步，而区域化在周边化和国际化中承递进作用，缓冲人民币国际化进程中的重重阻力。最后推进国际化实现国际化是人民币的最终目标。先通过理论描述人民币国际化路径的基本原则，同时构想了人民币国际化的实施步骤：健全货币机制和完善金融体制、建设人民币离岸市场和加强自由贸易区的建设。最后通过OCA指数模型和引力模型相结合的实证分析得出人民币国际化的必由之路是区域化，从而才能达到国际化的水平。

关键词：人民币国际化；OCA指数；路径分析

Abstract:China's increasing international political position, the developing economic and the stable RMB exchange rate, make the yuan strengthening economic base and international credit status.China's economic grows rapidly with reformation and opening. GDP overtook Japan to become the world's second largest economy in 2010, and foreign trade generated $2.84734 trillion in foreign exchange whit continuous surplus. As China's economy is strong, and the call for the internationalisation of the RMB is becoming more and more intensity in 2012, That bodes ill for the international status of RMB in the future. In this paper, we will analyze the way of RMB internationalization in such a big background,this paper thinks that the yuan should be carried out around thus regionalization, Surrounding is the first step to internationalization, and the regional bell and progressive role in peripheral and internationalization, buffer resistance in the process of the RMB internationalization. Finally promote the internationalization of RMB internationalization is ultimate goal. Pass theory described the basic principles of RMB internationalization path, idea and the implementation steps of the internationalisation of the renminbi: monetary mechanism and perfect the financial system, the construction of the offshore yuan market and strengthen the building of free trade area..finally through the OCA index model and gravity model with the combination of empirical analysis is the only way for the internationalisation of the RMB regionalization, thus to reach the level of internationalization.

Keywords: The internationalisation of the RMB; OCA index; Path