股票价格与上市公司业绩的关联性研究.doc

摘 要：当今社会，证券市场在整个国民经济的运行中起着至关重要的作用，特别在经济全球化的形势下，一个国家的证券市场健康与否直接反映了国家的经济竞争力。股票作为一种重要的权益投资工具，在资本市场上的地位和作用是毋庸置疑的，因而，股票的价格也就成为众多投资者和金融学家的重点研究对象。

　　　在千变万化的股市中，股票价格的所受影响因素很多，而在众多分析股票价格变动的研究中，财务报表因为它的实用性和易得性一直是人们关注的重点。在西方的成熟股票市场中，人们通过对财务指标的分析基本上可以得出结论：股票价格与上市公司业绩之间存在显著的正相关关系。而我国的股票市场是从1990年上海证券交易所的成立开始，距今天只有十几年的发展历史，仍处在初级阶段，存在着许多不健全的地方，因此不能直接认为我国股市也遵循这样的定理。

　　　本文以房地产行业为例，选取了近三年的相关数据，利用多元线性回归模型对我国上市公司股票格与公司业绩的相关性进行了实证研究。首先确立本文所采用的公司业绩评价的原则，然后根据该原则选取能够反映上市公司业绩的指标来进行实证分析。

　　　实证结果表明:上市股票价格与每股收益的相关性较为显著，说明上市公司股票价格与公司盈利有较强的关联性，股票价格基本反应了公司的基本信息；而净资产收益率、流动比率和每股经营性现金流与股价的相关性不显著。

关键词：上市公司业绩；股票价格；财务数据；相关性

ABSTRACT：In today's society, the securities market plays a vital role in the operation of the entire national economy, especially under the situation of economic globalization, whether a country's stock market is healthy or not directly reflects the country's economic competitiveness. The stock，as a kind of important equity investment tools, its status and role in the capital market is no doubt, therefore, the price of the stock has become the key research object of many investors and financial economists. 

　　　In a rapidly changing stock market, the stock price is affected by many factors, and in the analysis on the changes of stock price, the financial statements has been the focus of attention because of its practicability and availability. In the western mature stock market, the financial index analysis can often conclude that there is a significant positive correlation between the achievement of public company and stock price. China's stock market has just been established for decades beginning with the establishment of Shanghai stock exchange in 1990, and it is still in the primary stage, there still exists many imperfect places, so we can not directly consider that China's stock market also follow this set.

　　　Based on the real estate industry as an example, this paper selects the relevant data in recent three years, and researches the correlation of China's listing Corporation stock price and corporate performance by using the multiple linear regression model. Firstly, we establish the principle of performance evaluation adopted by this paper; Then we select indexes that can reflect the achievement of public company on the basis of the principle for empirical analysis. 

　　　The empirical results show that: there was significant correlation between stock prices and earnings per share, and it means that the listing Corporation stock price has a strong correlation with corporate profit, stock price basically reflect the basic company information. And the rate of return on net assets, the liquidity ratio and operating cash flow per share is not significant related with the stock price.

Keywords: Achievement of public company; Stock price; Financial data; Correlation