摘要：中国股市仍处于一个发展的初步阶段，各种问题与怪相也可谓此起彼伏，其中十分经典的一个现象就是羊群效应。股票市场中的羊群效应是一种十分特殊却又屡有发生的现象，也是当下众多学者的热门研究对象。股市中羊群效应的存在影响了股市的运行与发展，因此，研究其形成的原因、造成的后果及解决的方案就显得尤为重要。本文通过时间序列分析方法利用上证指数日收盘价构建了方差和标准差自回归模型，通过上证指数日收盘价与{△szpt}趋势的对比、检验及估算，实验结果表明了证券市场存在羊群效应的真实性。随着进一步的探究与分析，揭示了羊群效应所造成的后果以及产生羊群效应的几大问题和诱因，通过对问题的分析解读提出了个人的一些见解以及解决的措施。通过对股票市场羊群效应的分析与提炼，得到自己的观点：羊群效应产生的主因是人，只有树立正确的投资理念，才能避免羊群效应的负面效应，我国股市才能稳定健康的发展。
关键词：股票市场 羊群效应 行为金融 投资者
Abstract: China's stock market is still in a preliminary stage of development , and many problems have arisen, A very classic phenomenon which is a hot topic around is herd effect. Herd effect in stock market is not only a very special but common phenomenon, and it’s a focus object of study. In this paper, We use the analysis method of time series by the Shanghai Composite Index closing price to build the regression model of the variance and standard deviation. By contrast, testing and estimation of the Shanghai Composite Index daily closing price and {△ szpt} trend, the experimental results show that the herd effect in security market exists indeed . Through the analysis of the stock market herding and refining , to get the point of view : the main cause of herd effect is generated by investors, only establish the concept of rational investment can we avoid the negative effects of herding , our stock market could develop stably.
Key words: Stock Market Herd Effect Behavioral finance Investor
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